📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
ASML officially guided Q3 2026 total net sales of between €11 billion and €12 billion, following €8.8 billion in Q1 and €9.3 billion in Q2 2026. Q2 beat consensus estimates at the time, after which management raised full-year targets ('ASML beats Q2 2026 forecasts and lifts full-year outlook', Investing.com). External analyst consensus per TipRanks/Nasdaq stands at approximately $10.36 billion USD (approximately €9.4 billion at EUR/USD ~1.10) — well below the company's own guidance range, reflecting conservative models and/or FX effects. The €11.0 billion threshold equals the lower end of guidance; a miss would represent a significant shortfall against ASML's own planning. The driver remains unrelenting demand for EUV lithography equipment from TSMC, Samsung, and Intel for AI chip production capacity. No Polymarket market for ASML Q3.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
LVMH traditionally releases Q3 revenue in the second week of October (2024: October 15; 2023: October 11). After the global luxury slowdown of 2023–24, growth is stabilizing in 2026: China rebound, travel retail recovery, and robust US demand support core divisions (Fashion/Leather, Perfumes, Watches/Jewelry). Brent oil at ~$105/barrel (+16% in September 2026) increases general cost pressure, but LVMH's premium segment has low price elasticity. Bloomberg consensus estimates for Q3 2026 indicate organic growth of ~4–6%; the 5.0% threshold sits at the upper end of consensus. No Polymarket market found for LVMH Q3.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
US CPI August 2026 came in at 3.4% YoY (BLS, September 11, 2026), driven primarily by energy (+16.3% YoY, gasoline +27.4%). For September, the street consensus expects a rise to 3.7%, Cleveland Fed Nowcast: 3.57%, Kalshi-implied expectation: ~3.63%. With WTI crude at ~$89/barrel (+43% YoY) and Brent at ~$97 (+60% YoY), the energy contribution to CPI should remain clearly positive. The 3.5% threshold sits below the consensus expectation of 3.7% and well below the level consistent with continued Fed rate hikes (currently on track to 4.00–4.25%). No direct Polymarket market for the exact threshold; calibrated using Nowflation, Cleveland Fed, and Kalshi.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Morgan Stanley reported Q2 FY2026 total net revenues of $21.3B (consensus: $19.62B, beat: +$1.68B). The Q3 EPS consensus stands at ~$3.13 — with ~1.6B shares outstanding, this implies net income of ~$5.0B and revenues of ~$18–20B. Favorable conditions: S&P 500 at 7,670 (+9% YTD, strong wealth management fees), Fed rates at 3.75–4.00% (strong net interest margin), continued investment banking and M&A recovery. The $18.5B threshold sits ~13% below Q2 and slightly below implied consensus — set conservatively to price in seasonal Q3 cooling. No direct Polymarket/Kalshi market available; Goldman Sachs prediction (>$17B, Oct 13) as industry barometer.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
JPMorgan posted a record Q2 2026 managed revenue of $58.0bn — driven by a one-time $4.6bn Visa stake gain and an 86% YoY equity trading surge to $6.0bn. Q3 will normalize materially lower without these items. Reference: Q3 2025 was ~$43.3bn. Annual NII guidance ~$105.5bn implies ~$26.4bn/quarter. Analyst consensus Q3 EPS: $5.88, equating to ~$47–52bn revenue. The $47.0bn threshold sits at the lower end of the consensus range (~60% probability). No buy/sell recommendation.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Goldman Sachs reports Q3 2026 results on October 13, 2026. Analyst consensus stands at $16.90B net revenues (Investing.com, September 2026). H1 2026 was exceptionally strong: Q1 ≈ $17.23B, Q2 2026 = $20.34B (record, +39% vs. Q2 2025; SEC 8-K). Q3 is seasonally weaker than Q2 (lower M&A/IPO activity during summer months), but GS historically beats consensus in strong capital markets environments. The $17.0B threshold sits just above consensus — a moderate beat scenario without aggressive assumptions. JPMorgan >$47.0B is already covered as a separate open prediction. No buy or sell recommendation; pure event forecast.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) reports Q3 FY2026 earnings on October 13, 2026 before market open. Analyst consensus total net revenue is $50.85B (8 analysts, MarketBeat). In Q2 FY2026 JPM beat significantly: $58.02B actual vs. $50.72B consensus (+14%). Drivers: net interest margin remains firm with the Fed target range at 3.75–4.00%, and trading/capital-markets activity is elevated. The $50.0B threshold sits 1.7% below consensus, providing a modest buffer. No Polymarket market for JPM Q3 found; calibrated from JPM's ~85% beat rate over the last 8 quarters → adjusted probability 63%.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Wall Street consensus estimates Goldman Sachs' net revenues for Q3 FY2026 (July–September 2026) at $16.90 billion; the EPS consensus is $15.79. The $17.0 billion threshold sits ~0.6% above consensus, requiring a moderate beat. Drivers: Brent crude trades above $103/barrel at end of September 2026, boosting the trading desk (energy and commodities); plus a revived M&A pipeline and robust Asset & Wealth Management growth. Goldman Sachs has consistently beaten consensus estimates over the past four quarters. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for GS Q3 2026.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Citigroup reports Q3-FY2026 results on October 13, 2026 (8:00 AM ET). Analyst consensus stands at $23.75B total net revenues for Q3 2026 (Benzinga/Wall Street consensus, as of Sept 30, 2026) — an expected YoY growth of ~+7.4% vs. Q3 2025 actual of $22.1B. Q2 2026 came in at $24.8B (+14% YoY). CEO Jane Fraser's restructuring program continues to show positive effects; trading revenues and investment banking remain tailwinds. The $23.5B threshold sits ~$250M below consensus — historically Citi has beaten consensus estimates in ~60–65% of quarters. No Polymarket market available; own estimate: 68%.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
JPMorgan Chase reports Q3 FY2026 results on October 13, 2026, before market open (confirmed by TipRanks). Analyst consensus EPS stands at $5.88 per share (TipRanks, as of September 2026). On the revenue threshold: JPMorgan's Managed Net Revenue for Q3 2025 was approximately $42.7 billion; assuming 3–5% YoY growth (supported by 2026 Fed rate hikes — current rate 3.75–4.00%, September hike at 12:0 vote per Schwab) implies an expected Q3 2026 range of ~$44.0–44.8 billion. The $44.0 billion threshold sits at the lower end of the estimate range. Risk: credit losses in a high-rate environment could trigger reserve builds. No Polymarket quote available; calibration via consensus EPS and historical revenue growth yields approximately 68%.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Goldman Sachs will report net revenues above $17.5 billion in its Q3 FY2026 earnings on October 13, 2026 (before market open). Data: Analyst consensus Q3 FY2026 = $17.86B (TipRanks/Bloomberg, as of September 2026); the chosen $17.5B threshold is $360M below consensus — a safety buffer. Goldman Sachs beat expectations in Q1 FY2026. Drivers: strong M&A comeback (deal activity following the Fed's 2025 pause and renewed 2026 hiking cycle), active fixed-income and currency trading due to elevated macro volatility (Fed hiking, high US inflation), and private-equity fees from IPO-pipeline normalization. EPS consensus: ~$16.24–16.90/share. No Polymarket market found specifically for GS Q3; own calibration 72% based on consensus buffer and historical beat pattern.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Wells Fargo reports Q3 FY2026 results on October 13, 2026 (7:00 a.m. ET). Analyst consensus is $22.39 billion in total revenues and $1.84 EPS (Yahoo Finance/Benzinga). Large US banks beat consensus estimates in ~70–75% of quarters. The persistently high interest rate environment (Fed funds rate 3.75–4.00%, 10-year Treasury 5.33%) supports net interest income. 15 analysts rate Strong Buy, 3 Moderate Buy among 26 analysts. No Polymarket market for WFC earnings.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Analyst consensus (9 analysts, Yahoo Finance/FactSet, as of Oct 2, 2026) expects Q3 FY2026 total net revenues of $50.92B (range $49.36–$52.61B). The Q3 FY2025 comp was $46.43B (+9.7% YoY expected). EPS consensus is $5.88 (+15.2% YoY). JPMorgan has beaten EPS consensus in each of the last four quarters. The $50.5B threshold sits ~$420M below the midpoint – missing it would constitute a major negative surprise. No specific Polymarket market found; calibration based on historical large-bank consensus beat rate (~70%) minus a risk discount for net-interest-margin guidance risk in the current rising-yield environment: 65%.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Goldman Sachs reports Q3 earnings before market open on 13 October 2026. Wall Street consensus: $17.42B net revenues, $15.39 EPS (Scanx/Tickeron, Sept. 2026). GS has advised on nearly $1T in M&A volume YTD 2026 — the strongest investment banking year in years — driving strong advisory fees and trading revenues. Q2 2026 massively beat with 78% profit growth (EPS $20.98, +92% YoY). The $17.0B threshold sits 2.4% below consensus and represents a conservative floor. Large US banks have systematically beaten estimates recently.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Wall Street consensus for Citigroup Q3-FY2026 total net revenues stands at $23.75 billion (TipRanks, Yahoo Finance, Seeking Alpha, October 2026). The prediction threshold of $23.5 billion sits $0.25 billion (1.1%) below consensus. Large US banks historically beat or meet revenue estimates in approximately 60–65% of reporting periods. The stable rate environment (Fed funds rate 3.75–4.00%) supports net interest income; international trade-finance activity is robust. Investment banking revenues are expected to have modestly recovered versus Q2 2026. No direct Polymarket market found; calibration is based on consensus gap and historical beat rate.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Wells Fargo releases Q3 FY2026 results on 13 October 2026 before market open (~7:00 am ET). Analyst consensus stands at USD 22.33–22.34 billion in total net revenues (+EPS consensus: USD 1.84, +6.4% YoY). The USD 22.0 billion threshold sits USD 330 million (−1.5%) below consensus — WFC would need a meaningful miss for the prediction to fail. No Polymarket market for WFC found; the 78% probability is anchored on consensus proximity and historical beat rates for major US banks (JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi also reporting the same day).
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
JPM posted Q3 FY2025 total net revenues of $43.32 billion. Three structural drivers favor Q3 2026: (1) 10-year Treasury yield at 5.28% — well above prior year — materially lifts NII; (2) the weak NFP print (29,000 jobs, October 2) triggered heavy rates-market volatility, boosting trading and fixed-income revenues; (3) investment banking activity remains robust. JPM is the only one of the five major US banks not yet covered by open predictions. JPM beat consensus in 5 of the last 6 quarters. The $44.5B threshold represents +2.7% YoY — modest given the structural rate environment.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Goldman Sachs reports on October 13, 2026 before market open. Street consensus is $15.18–$15.39 EPS with revenues of $16.86–$17.42B. Q2 FY2026 delivered one of GS's largest historical EPS beats: $20.98 vs. $14.47 consensus (+$6.51, +45%). FICC trading and investment banking benefited from elevated market volatility in summer 2026. GS beats EPS consensus in historically ~80% of quarters. No direct Polymarket market available for this event; own calibration based on historical beat rate and Q2 dynamics. Threshold of $16.00 is 4% above the high consensus estimate, but well below the Q2 result. GS stock at $916.28 (–2.1% on October 9, 2026).
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
The BLS confirmed on September 11, 2026 that August 2026 headline CPI was above 3.0% YoY (accelerating from July's 3.4%). Brent crude at $105–108/bbl remains well above the prior-year level of ~$80–85, keeping energy-driven headline CPI elevated for September as well. Core CPI stands at 2.4%; the ~0.8pp headline-core gap is almost entirely attributable to energy. Even with moderate oil-price easing, September CPI headline is very likely to remain above 3.0% YoY.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Citigroup reports Q3-FY2026 results on October 13, 2026, pre-market open. General consensus: ~$2.65 EPS (Pluang/market majority), Alphastreet estimate: $2.62. Benzinga anticipates higher year-over-year earnings. The 90-day estimate stood at $2.69 — the modest downward drift suggests conservative analyst positioning, which increases the probability of a positive surprise. Large US banks historically beat EPS consensus in ~65% of quarters. The $2.65 threshold corresponds to the upper end of the consensus range.