The S&P 500 currently trades at ~7,543 points (July 9-10). Polymarket gives a 62% probability that SPY hits $760 (≈ S&P 7,600) at any point in July. For the specific July 18 close – start of US earnings season (Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet in week 30) and one week before the ECB decision – the probability is estimated at a slightly more conservative 57%. Source: Polymarket Finance, Yahoo Finance, as of July 10, 2026.
If Argentina beats Switzerland (July 12), the defending champions face the winner of Norway–England on July 15. Norway has been a tournament surprise team but lacks experience at this level. England qualified through Euro rounds without struggle but narrowly advanced in the WM group stage. Argentina with Martínez, Álvarez and De Paul is favored against either opponent (betting odds ~1.75).
The DAX stood at 25,124 points on July 10, 2026 – a ~700-point technical correction from the all-time high of 25,826 (July 3). The pullback appears oversold; strong support lies at the 25,000 mark. With the beginning of Q2 earnings season for European corporations in mid-July and positive consumer sentiment from the World Cup, a recovery to 25,400+ within one week appears realistic.